From guest contributor Rick Kurtzo. Let me and Rick know what you think about his post.
Plastered across the front page of the TU and transmitted across the local broadcast spectrum is this astounding news:
Incumbents Romp to Victory!
I understand the necessity of reporting results, and I am thankful for the service, but it ain’t news to me or anyone. What then might be noteworthy about the results? A few of the devils in these details: Election results
What I find most striking is Sheriff Rutherford’s claim of a mandate and an endorsement of his current policies. 60.26% of the vote is undeniably a resounding endorsement. But it is hardly the mandate he received in 2003 to continue in the well traveled footsteps of Nat Glover.
In 2003, Sheriff Rutherford won 73% of the vote. He defeated his combined opponents in the First Election by a remarkable 46.14%. Against the combined efforts of Dale Carson and Reggie Davis he won by 20.52%. Is that less than half a mandate? In fact, half a percent (589 voters) decided to forgo voting in the mayoral race altogether but considered the sheriffs race essential.
I wonder which way they voted. Considering the margin at the top of the ticket (52.46%), among other notorious statistics, it seems that the sheriff has some ground to make up in the community before he can claim a powerful mandate.
Ah Yes, on to the top of the ticket. Boy Wonder vs. Aunt Jemima. No surprises there. Unless you consider the 24,423 votes cast for a candidate without essential experience, a campaign with no effective message a suprise. Many will suggest that the African American community accounts for this number. Without precinct statistics available it is difficult to analyze this claim.
Considering the establishment’s faith-based loyalist and the insular black leadership in Jacksonville it is difficult to attribute this protest vote entirely to the organized African American community.
A likely dynamic was the long ago decided outcome of this race. Dissatisfied voters (and the “stick it to the man” constituency) could rest assured that a protest would be of little consequence. Perhaps they were right. Perhaps not. Let’s bring it together in City Council Group 2 (at-large.)
Bob Harms and Jay Jabour are currently separated by only 238 votes. Jabour to the good. Jay Jabour lost his last election by 98 votes. The last competitive At-large seat on the Council was decided by 2145 votes. Both of these elections had hotly contested county wide elections driving turnout. On May 15th the sole county wide election on the ballot will be the Group 2 Council Seat. With diminishing turnout every vote will acquire more influence. That 24,423-protest vote becomes significant. So do the recalcitrant sheriff 589.
Conventional wisdom suggest that Theresa Graham voters will flip to the Republican and give Jabour an easy victory. And Duval elections are nothing if not exemplars of conventional wisdom.
However, might the details above suggest that Bob Harms has a chance? A Democrat? In Jacksonville! A Democrat has not held an at-large seat on the Council since 1999. History suggests that Mike Hightower will have the vaunted Republican ground game in classic form. And they certainly have home field advantage. Do the numbers point to an exploitable weakness in the establishment machine? Unlikely. However, Harms might just have an “end around” up his sleeve. In order to win he must:
- produce his contingent
- find and mobilize some of Jackie Brown’s voters
- rustle up some of those Sheriff deserters
- convince some margin of the Theresa Graham contingent to give him a shot
- exploit whatever opportunity he might find among the rest of the district races(Jack Daniels’ grassroots mavericks come to mind)….
Well, that all sounds more like a hail mary. Anyway folks. We might just have a game on our hands.
Duval County voter turn out. Sad, so sad.
tags: jacksonville, politics, election 07
Considering that this reads like an SportsCenter analysis of the elections, it’s not bad.
This, however, is just silly:
“Ah Yes, on to the top of the ticket. Boy Wonder vs. Aunt Jemima.”
I think some editorial control should have been exercised here.
As someone who follows politics pretty closely, and for a few decades at that, I thought it was quite good. I see no problem with the BW>AJ comment.
I would agree with the analysis, although Eric Smith or Warren Jones or some democrat did get pretty close in an at-large election recently.
I think it will be difficult to motivate voters for the runoff. Just one county-wide office and few district runoffs. If the Duval Democrats were smart, they would pull out all the stops on this one. I mean ALL the stops. Knowing them, they will let this opportunity slip by. In an election with extremely low turnout (which this will be), if you can id your voters and get them to the polls, it is definitely winnable.
I voted for Jackie Brown because “None of the Above” was mysteriously left off the ballot.
I agree that the Aunt Jemima phrase was a mistake. A few more words and my intent would have been clear.
As written, it could be read(correctly) to imply any number of undesirable attitudes. It makes an irresponsible expectation of the audience. In a city that struggles with the persistent manifestations of racial tension, I had no business making this quip without qualification.
Please accept my unqualified apology.
As to the “sports center “ style… I prefer to think of it as conversational. I doubt I can ever rid myself of football metaphors.
After all…politics is the most vicious of contact sports.
I should remember that.
Don’t want to fumble anymore kickoffs.
I don’t think it was controversial b/c of her dressing like Aunt Jemima.
http://j-walkblog.com/index.php?/weblog/posts/aunt_jemima_look_alike_arrested/
Scratch that, it’s controversial, but it was justified.
Dudes, The lady dressed like Aunt Jemima for a city council meeting. Duh! Did she not think that she would forever be known as Aunt Jemima?! That’s classic!! Who else would do that? Anyone looking for attention!!! She did what she had to do to get attention!! I honestly don’t believe that this lady is stupid!! Of course, she’s not smart enough to win, but enough to make Peyton a little nervous!?
I’m about as white as humans get, and I voted for Jackie
I did not mean that I should have taken that phrase out. I should have made my attempt at caricaturing the entire of the race clearer. and funnier.
Any reader not familiar with the situation would have no reason, because i did not provide one in the text, not to believe that I was an ass.
I have a problem with pancakes nowadays, and it’s all her fault. Only so much can be put into entries. Anyone NOT knowing about the fiasco…who got off their butt to do their own google search…would know the comment held ground.
After years of a company working hard at getting integrity, wholesomeness, and warmth through marketing…it all fell down because of one woman’s claim to fame.
2007: A Pancake Oddity.
You can’t really compare the Sheriff’s race in 2003 with this one. Rutherford did really well against a well-spoken and well-qualified Dale Carson (with name recognition from his dad) and an African-American candidate who could rally up (and win) parts of Districts 7-10. These two were far more serious candidates than Lem Sharp and whoever the other guy (Anderson?) was that ran in 2003.
Actually, Ms. Brown, if I’m not mistaken, in fact dressed like ‘Aunt Jemima to make a point about how she was being perceived whenever she tried to speak before the City Council. I thought it was quite effective. As a southern white boy bred and raised in North Carolina (during segregation I might add) and Jacksonville during my early teen years, I voted for Ms. Brown as well. What exactly is it about white middle class voters that want to vote in people beholden to the oil industry? And then act shocked when gas starts rising above $2.50 cents a gallon. There is a certain amount of symmetry when one looks at Gate Petroleum boy and his party affiliation with the Carrier lander codpiece in Chief pretending to be President. Oh, that’s right. I forgot. They are good ol’ boys who you would rather have a beer with. But then again you are always going to be the one to pick up the tab. When will we ever learn?
As for your analysis. Right on. For someone that was unorganized and controversial, Ms. Brown’s vote totals were in fact an eye brow raiser for me as well. You can bet it didn’t slip by Mr. Mike “Blue Cross Blue Shield boy” Hightower as well. I think this bodes well for Democrats (that includes myself - as a former member of the DCDEC I can speak with some authority) in the future. We just need to find that one person who can resonate with both the small business community and aveage vote at large. That would beat out the large corporate interests every time.
I’d like to see some analysis on the district 7 race. Post-mortems are always entertaining, in case anyone wanted to make Martha Pellino any more angry. But with the run-off coming up, we need to know more about Gaffney and Anderson. What sort of political base is each beholden to?
I agree with Skimbro…both with finding out more about Gaffney & Anderson, and seeing if we can get Pellino, who really showed her true colors post-election, any more spun up into a frenzy.
BTW Mrs. Pellino…it wasn’t the bloggers who ruined your chances, it was your inability to answer questions with some substance. But your campaign signs have really brightened up the vacant Heionedes lots along Main St, so “Thanks!”
TrumanDem - while I agree with your take on Shrub, please tell me you don’t always vote Democrat just because they are Democrat (something I may have “read” into a previous comment?)…
TrumanDem says “What exactly is it about white middle class voters that want to vote in people beholden to the oil industry?”
With that logic, I guess that means all minorities & poor people vote for democrats. How about maybe it’s possible that Jackie Brown saying she’s basically only worked for her families construction business and dressing as Aunt Jemima just wasn’t enough of a base for one to vote for her.
J Says comments with a response: “…With that logic, I guess that means all minorities & poor people vote for democrats. How about maybe it’s possible that Jackie Brown saying she’s basically only worked for her families construction business and dressing as Aunt Jemima just wasn’t enough of a base for one to vote for her.”
Interesting use of the word ‘logic’ here. Your post reminds me of a hand full of my 10th grade students who employ ’selective’ hearing when they want to whine about an assignment they failed to turn in. In this case your response is a case of ’selective’ reading. I did not say ALL white middle class voters. I was referring to that part of the GOP base that vote against their own economic interests. Actually I should have included that lower class southern white male with the pick up and one or more uninsured kids being told to fear some guy/gal sleeping with a same sex partner in the next block while the Democrats plot to take away his guns. Meanwhile the the GOP clamors for the eradication of a ‘death’ tax that has absolutely no effect on them economically during the distraction. This is just a minor example whereas there others too numerous to list here. Now, if you want to claim I’m stereotyping the aformentioned lower class southern white male: bang - guilty as charged. As for your allusion to a logical conclusion on my part regarding the minority vote I’d like to invite you to my blog and read my Sept. 24, 2006 entry on people that mistake minority voters as a monolithic voting bloc at their own peril.
Nick, just wondering. When you wrote this:
“I think some editorial control should have been exercised here.”
Were you aware of that Jackie Brown dressed as Aunt Jemima at a city council meeting as mentioned above?
This article from Tonya Weathersbee also reflects some of Ricks sentiments: Jackie Brown’s mayoral bid was courageous move
There is another eyebrow raising factcor about Jackie Brown’s 24% of the vote that even Ms. Weathersbee failed to touch on in her article. Though she danced around it a couple of times she did at least come close:
“What that episode says is that too many people in the establishment have grown comfortable with certain groups being unseen and unheard- to the point where any attempt on their part to not accept their invisibility is seen as a threat. And when someone expects for them to accept invisibility as their status in life, well then, it’s time for one of them to step up.”
Almost Ms. Weathersbee. Almost. What she needed to say stright out is that marginalization means that 76% of the voters that day could careless about the plight of “those” areas of town they never have a reason to visit. These voters are mostly white. This failure falls directly into the lap of the local Democratic party. As a member of that party part of that blame lies with me as well. Unless the local Democratic party can craft a message that will resonate with the rest of the city that ALL areas of town deserve our undivided attention and realize the stake we have in them the marginalization will only become more acute which will no doubt be a catalyst for higher crime rates and othe socio-economic woes.
I will talk more about this later in detail on my blog. We really need to ‘demarginalize’ those groups in Duval county soon or we will be paying a heavy price later.
Way too much is being read into the 76-24 mayoral result. Jackie Brown’s showing is about what you would expect from an unknown Democrat on the ballot in this city. The African-American areas also happen to be the heavily Democratic areas… and that’s why she won them.
Peyton picked up such a large margin because people know who he is… and while they may or may not like him, they knew absolutely nothing about Jackie Brown. Or they knew that at some point in the past she showed up at a city council meeting in a costume of some sort.