From contributing writer Scott Taylor, Springfield, image courtesy of: Abode of Chaos
Heard of Global Warming right? Well Peak Oil is the potentially bigger and more devastating boogey man lurking right around the corner. My research indicates the event will be upon us between now to 2011.
Let’s get through the terminology right away. Peak Oil is the broader term to describe the geophysical phenomena of maximum production from fossil fuel sources. Lesson #1, the world is not running out of oil, it is just becoming more scarce, harder to extract and produce, and hence more expensive. The peak occurs when we have used up about 1/2 of the oil reserves and the production goes into irreversible decline no matter how more oil wells are drilled, or enhanced recovery technologies are used. PO is the aggregate of all the world’s production. Our current production is 85 mbd (million barrels per day) and the supply is very tight to demand. The U.S. stands as the benchmark case.
In 1956 a geologist, M. King Hubbert presented the concept of peak oil production which the aggregate follows a bell curve. Hubbert predicted the lower 48 oil production would peak around 1969 to 1970. The U.S. reached it’s maximum oil production of 10.2 million barrels per day (mbd) in late 1970, and now produces around 3.8 mbd. Hubbert also predicted the world’s oil production would peak around 2000, but the oil embargos of the 1970’s shifted this date to the right to about 2010. Some experts stipulate we have reached peak, but we really don’t know until we see it in the rearview mirror. What is universally known is that we are at the end of the era of cheap oil. A good primer on the subject is at www.energybulletin.net/primer
A more balanced approach is termed “relocalization”. To relocalize (www.relocalize.net) is to use and build the resources closer to home for a sustainable population, and thereby reduce the amount of fossil fuel consumption. Food in your grocery store travels an average of 1500 miles to make it to the shelf. As James Knustler puts it, “The age of the 3,000 mile Caesar Salad is at an end.” And how does all this fit into our good urbanites’ lifestyle?
Those giving it a lot more thought than I have, such as Knustler and R. Heinberg, make it quite obvious that high transportation costs of the “happy motoring” culture are going to drive people to live closer to work, cultural, economic and religious centers in more concentrated residential areas; i.e. urban living.
But it doesn’t start and end with just that solution. Relocalize means we also have to rebuild our local agriculture, services and good supply. Think of a very large village with the butcher, the baker, and the candle-stick maker. To beat some more clichés to death, what’s old is new again and we will have to relearn some skills. Vegetable gardening will be a popular one.
This is the first piece of I don’t know how many, but before you fall down the rabbit hole of PO, I wanted to give you a peak over the edge. Subsequent articles will discuss in detail aspects of our economic evolution/revolution, if we are to survive, relevant to urban living. I will close with a topical comment on the minds of many downtown residents, (and I sure hope JTA reads this!). Implementing a BRT solution over the next couple years is going to look awfully foolish once PO is more widely known. How viable will a bus transit system be with fuel at $5/gal, or $8/gal?
The next article will explore relocalization in more detail.
Resources:
Listen to an podcast on food relocalization (mp3) article
From contributing writer Scott Taylor, Springfield, image courtesy of: Abode of Chaos
